Match: UEFA Europa Conference League
Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Rijeka
Local Kick-off Time: December 18th, 22:00
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Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:
Shakhtar Donetsk
In the 16th round of the Ukrainian Premier League, Shakhtar Donetsk secured a convincing 5-0 home victory over Dunajec, a match that was decided from the start as Shakhtar displayed exceptional game control. The 5 goals were scored by 4 different players, and substitutes made an immediate impact—highlighting the team’s strong overall attacking power and squad depth. This season, Shakhtar’s average possession rate and number of attacks are significantly higher than the league average, giving them strong control over matches. Since manager Hasan Turan took charge, the team has averaged 2.07 points per game. Defensively, they are also reliable, conceding only 5 goals in 11 European matches, with excellent offensive and defensive statistics. This resounding victory is a typical reflection of their tactical style.
| Type | Date | Home Team | Score (Half-Time) | Away Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukrainian Premier League | 25-12-15 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 5-0 (2-0) | Epicentr Kropyvnytskyi |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 25-12-12 | Hamrun Spartans | 0-2 (0-0) | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 25-12-06 | Kolos Kovalivka | 0-0 (0-0) | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 25-12-02 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2-2 (1-2) | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 25-11-28 | Shamrock Rovers | 1-2 (0-1) | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 25-11-23 | Obolon Kyiv | 0-6 (0-1) | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 25-11-10 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7-1 (2-0) | Vorskla Poltava |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 25-11-07 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2-0 (1-0) | Breiðablik |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 25-11-03 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3-1 (1-0) | Dynamo Kyiv |
| Ukrainian Cup | 25-10-30 | Dynamo Kyiv | 2-1 (1-0) | Shakhtar Donetsk |
Rijeka
Rijeka’s last match was a 3-0 home victory over Slovenian side Celje in the Europa Conference League on December 12th. The match was not one-sided from the start: both teams failed to score in the first half, resulting in a tight contest. However, the tide turned in the second half when Rijeka broke the deadlock. Shortly after, a Celje player was sent off, leaving them with 10 men. Rijeka, with the numerical advantage, went on to secure the victory. Prior to this match, Rijeka had been unbeaten in 5 consecutive matches (including 2 wins), extending their unbeaten run to 6 games after this result. Despite a slump at home in August, they have rebounded strongly recently. However, their away form is a clear weakness: they have won only 1 of their last 6 away matches. Their away defense is leaky, having conceded in 9 consecutive away matches.
| Type | Date | Home Team | Score (Half-Time) | Away Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 25-12-12 | HNK Rijeka | 3-0 (0-0) | NK Celje |
| Croatian First Football League | 25-12-07 | HNK Rijeka | 3-1 (2-0) | Vukovar 91 |
| Croatian Football Cup | 25-12-03 | Mladost (Zadar) | 1-4 (1-0) | HNK Rijeka |
| Croatian First Football League | 25-11-30 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-1 (0-1) | HNK Rijeka |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 25-11-28 | HNK Rijeka | 0-0 (0-0) | AEK Larnaca |
| Croatian First Football League | 25-11-23 | HNK Rijeka | 5-0 (3-0) | HNK Hajduk Split |
| Croatian First Football League | 25-11-10 | HNK Varaždin | 1-0 (1-0) | HNK Rijeka |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 25-11-07 | Lincoln Red Imps | 1-1 (0-1) | HNK Rijeka |
| Croatian First Football League | 25-11-01 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 2-1 (1-0) | HNK Rijeka |
| Croatian First Football League | 25-10-27 | HNK Rijeka | 4-2 (2-1) | NK Osijek |
Summary:
Shakhtar’s advantage lies in their powerful attacking system. In the Europa Conference League, they have won 4 of their 5 matches, topping the group standings. The team’s tactical core is high-pressing possession and multi-faceted attack, creating an average of 15 shots per game. However, their focus on attack may leave defensive gaps. Rijeka’s strength is their extremely solid defense, conceding only 2 goals in 5 Europa Conference League matches. The team’s form has improved significantly recently, currently on a 6-match unbeaten run across all competitions. Nevertheless, their poor away form is a major shortcoming—they were eliminated in the Europa League play-offs last season due to subpar away performances. Additionally, their attacking firepower is limited, and they will struggle to withstand Shakhtar’s high-pressing style. Shakhtar Donetsk are undoubtedly the stronger side in terms of quality and expected game control, so they are favored to win at home.
Open Odd
| Full-Time Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| 1 | 1.85 |
| X | 3.50 |
| 2 | 4.10 |
Handicap Prediction:
Shakhtar Donetsk -0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Home Win (European Handicap)
Predicted Scores: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1
Predicted Total Goals: 1, 2, 3
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